Scientific and Technical Journal


ISSN Print 2221-3937
ISSN Online 2221-3805

The article considers the problem of analysis, monitoring and forecasting of energy consumption and assessing the levels of energy and economy security of the country. The basis for forecasting are indicators of the development of the economy, energy sector and the social sphere using the statistics of the previous period. The different nature of the change in statistical data in the economic, energy and social sectors, their wide variety and dispersion require a special approach to determine the trend. The information of statistical data of macroeconomic indicators for the period 2010-2016 is presented. The description of the method of indicative analysis. The method for forecasting changes in macroeconomic indicators are given. Results forecasting for groups of indicators and a generalized indicator of energy security as a the quantitative measure of the level for the country's energy security are given. These indicators to show the most problematic segments of energy supply and optimize solutions aimed at improving the level of energy security of the country. It is shown that the crisis conditions are indicators of the following spheres of the economy: demographic, labor, living standards, investment, foreign economic, science. The crisis condition of half of the spheres of the economy testifies to the crisis state of economic security as a whole. For energy security, crisis indicators are indicators of own production of secondary energy resources, lack of reserves of own energy resources, high tariffs for electricity and heat, small investment resources for the development of the energy sector. The general deterioration of the economic situation in the country causes additional risks for the energy sector. But, reliable energy supply and energy security are key to sustainable economic development and economic security. Accounting for the interrelations of the economy and energy sector in monitoring and forecasting indicators helps to identify mutual threats and prevent the development of crisis conditions.


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