Scientific and Technical Journal

ELECTROTECHNIC AND COMPUTER SYSTEMS

ISSN Print 2221-3937
ISSN Online 2221-3805
THE FORECASTINGS IN ENERGY SECTOR. ASPECTS OF METHODOLOGY AND THE INITIAL DATA
Abstract:

The article considers the problem of analysis, monitoring and forecasting of energy consumption and assessing the levels of energy and economy security of the country. The basis for forecasting are indicators of the development of the economy, energy sector and the social sphere using the statistics of the previous period. The different nature of the change in statistical data in the economic, energy and social sectors, their wide variety and dispersion require a special approach to determine the trend. The information of statistical data of macroeconomic indicators for the period 2010-2016 is presented. The description of the method of indicative analysis. The method for forecasting changes in macroeconomic indicators are given. Results forecasting for groups of indicators and a generalized indicator of energy security as a the quantitative measure of the level for the country's energy security are given. These indicators to show the most problematic segments of energy supply and optimize solutions aimed at improving the level of energy security of the country. It is shown that the crisis conditions are indicators of the following spheres of the economy: demographic, labor, living standards, investment, foreign economic, science. The crisis condition of half of the spheres of the economy testifies to the crisis state of economic security as a whole. For energy security, crisis indicators are indicators of own production of secondary energy resources, lack of reserves of own energy resources, high tariffs for electricity and heat, small investment resources for the development of the energy sector. The general deterioration of the economic situation in the country causes additional risks for the energy sector. But, reliable energy supply and energy security are key to sustainable economic development and economic security. Accounting for the interrelations of the economy and energy sector in monitoring and forecasting indicators helps to identify mutual threats and prevent the development of crisis conditions.

Authors:
Keywords
References

1. “DECISION No. 141 of 24.02.2014 on the establishment of the energy statistics system” (2014). Access mode: http://lex.justice.md/index.php.

  1. “Energy efficiency indicators: the basics of statistics” (2018). Access mode: https://www.iea.org/ meia/training/ eeukraine2015/EEIrussianversion.PDF.
  2. Pyatkova, N. I., Rabchuk, V. I., Senderov, S. M., Slavin, G. B., Cheltsov, M. B. (2011). Energy security of Russia: problems and solutions. [Energeticeskaia bezopasnosti Rossii:problem i puti resenia] / Resp. edit. N. I. Voropay, M. B. Cheltsov: Melentievs Energy Systems Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ESI SB RAS). Novosibirsk: Publis. SB RAS, 198 p. ISBN 978-57692-1163-8.
  3. Bykova, E. V. (2014). The analysis of fuel consumption structure and carbon dioxide emissions by view of energy security in energetics of the Republic of Moldova. [Analiz structutri toplivosnabjenia i vibrosov dioxide ugleroda v energosectore Moldovi c pozitii energeticeskoi bezopasnosti], Problems of the regional energetics, 1, pp.68-73. ISSN 1857-0070. Access mode: http://journal.ie.asm.md/ ro/archive.
  4. Fedorchenko, S. G., Fedorchenko G.S. (2014). Integral measure of evaluation of the status of energy security. [Integralinaia mera otenki sostoiania energeticeskoi bezopasnosti] Problems of the regional energetics, 1(24), pp.1-16. ISSN 1857-0070. Access mode: http: //journal.ie.asm.md/assets/files/03_01_24_2014.
  5. Bykova, E. V. (2016). Conceptual terms and monitoring system of energy security. [Konceptualinie polojenia i sistema monitoringa energeticeskoi bezopasnosti]. Proceedings of the International conference “Energy of Moldova – 2016. Regional aspects of development”, 29 September -1 October, 2016 - Chisinau, Republic of Moldova, Ch.: Logosprint, pp. 36-40. ISBN 978-9975-4123-5-3.
  6. Bykova E. V., Grodetsky, М. V. (2016). Development program mid-term prediction in the composition of soft for analysis and monitoring of energy security. [Razrabotka programi srednesrocinogo prognozirovania v sostave vicislitelinogo complexa dlea analiza i monitoringa energeticeskoi bezopasnosti]. Proceedings of the International conference “Energy of Moldova – 2016. Regional aspects of development”, 29 September -1 October, 2016 - Chisinau, Republic of Moldova, Ch.: Logosprint, pp. 28-36. ISBN 978-9975-4123-5-3.
  7. Blagodatskikh, V. G., Bogatyrev, L. L, Bushuev, V. V, Voropai, N. I. (1998). Influence of the Energy Factor on the Economic Security of Russian Regions. [Vliianie energeticeskogo faktora na economiceskuiu bezopasnosti regionov Rossii] //Ekaterinburg: Ural University Publishing House, 195 p.
  8. Bykova, E. V. (2005). Methods of calculation and analysis of energy security indicators (using the example of Moldova's energy system). [Metodi rasciota i analiza pokazatelei energeticeskoi bezopasnosti ( na primere Moldovi)]. Series "Energy Security", Book No. 2, Chisinau: Typography of the ASM, 158s.
  9. Bushuev, V. V., Voropai, N. I., Masterpanov, A. M., Shafranik, Yu. K. (1998). Energy security of Russia. [Energeticeskaia bezopasnosti Rossii] //Novosibirsk: Nauka. Siberian Publishing Company RAS, 302 p.
  10. Grodetsky, M. V. (2012). Solution of optimization problems in power engineering with a large number of restrictions of the type of equality. [Resenie optimizationih zadaci v energetike pri bolishom cisle ogranicenii tipa ravenstva]. Proceedings of the International conference “Energy of Moldova – 2012. Regional aspects of development”, 4-6 October, 2012 - Ch.:ТАSМ, с.185 - 187. ISBN 978-9975-62-324-7.
  11. Economy security (1998). [Economiceskaia bezopasnost]. Resp. edit. Senchagov, V. C. Moscow: ZAO Finstatinform.
  12. Economy security (2015). [Economiceskaia bezopasnosti] General course: a textbook / Ed. Senchagov, V. C. Moscow: BINOM. Laboratory of Knowledge. ISBN 978-5-9963-2605-1.
  13. National Bureau of Statistics (2017). [Nationalinoe biuro statistici]. Access mode: www.statistica.md.
  14. Postolaty, V. M. (2016). The Method of Determining the Limits of Possible Increase of Tariffs for Energy and Other Material Costs in the Sectors of the Economy of Republic of Moldova, Based on the Analysis of National Accounts. [Metod opredelenia predelinih urovnei vozmojnogo povishenia tarifov na energoresursi i drugie materialinie zatrati v otrasleah economiki Respubliki Moldova, ishodea iz analiza pokazatelei nationalinih scetov]. Problems of the regional energetics, 3(32), cc.111-125, ISSN 1857-0070. Access mode: http://journal.ie.asm.md/assets/iles/ 13_03_32_2016.
  15. Minimum wage around the world [Minimalinaia zarplata po vsemu miru]. Access mode:ibusiness.ru/blog/money/41659(05.04.2018).
  16. Dikusar, A. I. (2010). The place of the researchers of Moldova in the world information process. Scientometric analysis. [Mesto issledovatelei Moldovi v mirovom informationom protesse. Naukometriceskii analiz]. Akademos nr. 1 (16), pp. 28-35. ISSN 1857-0461
  17. Bykova, E. V. (2005). Modeling the interconnections of economic and energy security of the region. [Modelirovanie vzaimosveazei economiceskoi i energeticeskoi bezopasnosti regiona], The Economy of Region №2, Ekaterinburg, Russia, pp.85-93.

 

Published:
Last download:
24 Sept 2018

[ © KarelWintersky ] [ All articles ] [ All authors ]
[ © Odessa National Polytechnic University, 2014-2018. Any use of information from the site is possible only under the condition that the source link! ]
Яндекс.Метрика