Scientific and Technical Journal

ELECTROTECHNIC AND COMPUTER SYSTEMS

ISSN Print 2221-3937
ISSN Online 2221-3805
ERGODICITY FOR MODEL OF VALUATION "SIX LEVELS OF SUCCESS"
Abstract:

According to the state graduation success (compliance) as the degree of perfection of the projects proposed model of valuation "six levels of success." This model is universal and can be applied to any project and their constituent describing the main aspects of projects, as well as in a real company.

Мodel of valuation "six levels of success" describes a directed graph, which is represented by a homogeneous ergodic Markov chain with discrete states and discrete time.

Analysis of the properties of the original and the simulation model leads to the conclusion about the validity of the use of Markov chains to display the system evaluation.

Calculations final probabilities for a known initial distribution and a given transition matrix, which is obtained with the help of expert estimates, is the most important task for ergodic chains. Determination of probabilities of Markov's theorem is rather laborious. This paper proposes a method for finding the desired probability for ergodic chains by solving a system of algebraic equations, which is obtained by a simple mnemonic.

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References
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